Posts

Responding to China data etc etc Trades I like owning EM today on the other side of some dow futures. Boeing not going to lift Dow again today, if anything we’re going to have dovish surprises and overnight move in China feels like it derisks EM into year end and could see ppl chasing it. I like that Dow doesn’t have Tesla in it / could see it being lagard / pain trade on other side of financials (remember Brainard likes the idea of forcing banks to cut divs) Also like owning fixed income futures (namely 5 years)....

Thinking about best risk reward opportunities General Market Take The week got started out with god awful Japanese data, and the drumbeat of war in eastern Europe. Given absurd dovishness of Central Banks and the fact Lagarde will be speaking all weak (she is going to be dovish) - it’s going to be hard to see the rate hike narrative last in spite of extreme inflation. This is obviously an explosive combination given the fact inflation is likely to be well above the 5% target throughout much of 2022, a clear legal violation of the Fed’s mandate....

Here I detail some analysis of newsflow over the last week and where I see best risk reward going into the start of the year Analysis / Thought The core theme coming out of the gate of the New Year is a parabolic move higher in Bitcoin on the backdrop of VanEck getting a Bitcoin ETF. This moves the Zeitgeist into one of “fiat debasement” - where, essentially large institutions believed that Central Banks have jumped the shark with their talks of “Debt as Wealth”, MMT, and so forth....

Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits gets frequently recommended to me by top performing equity managers. It’s 15 rules for evaluating growth stocks. I read it and summarized it. Summary Rote changes in revenue and earnings are less interesting than their quality and repeatability. Invest in a company with capable, honest and adaptive management entering an under penetrated market that invests its resources in such a way to give it optionality into new spaces....